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"Many experts believe that oil prices are at unsustainably low prices now, and they expect a sharp rise in the commodity price as supply and demand come back into line again," says turnaround expert George Putnam.

In The Turnaround Letter, he suggests, "If oil does begin to rise again, the oilfield service stocks could rebound sharply." Here, he takes a look at large cap plays on a rebound within the oilfield services sector.

"We all know that oil prices have fallen dramatically from their highs in the summer of 2008. But different types of oil-related stocks have reacted quite differently to the price change in the underlying commodity.

"For example, while oil itself has dropped nearly 70% from its 12-month high, the stock of the largest integrated oil company, Exxon-Mobil (NYSE: XOM), is down only 26%, less than the stock market as a whole.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) Q4 profit rose on higher prices, and its forecast matched expectations.
• Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Q4 earnings grew on cost cutting but revenue remained flat.
• Black & Decker Corp. (NYSE: BDK) shares tanked after the dismal Q4 report, and it announced job cuts.
• Carpenter Technology Corp. (NYSE: CRS) Q2 numbers resulted in a downgrade from one analyst.
• ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reported a Q4 loss due to writedowns from recent acquisitions.
• DuPont (NYSE: DD) swung to a bigger-than-expected Q4 loss and its revenue fell as well.
• Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) swung to a Q4 loss on acquisition costs but reaffirmed its guidance.

Here's a quick look at some of Monday's earnings results:

Netflix Inc.'s (NASDAQ: NFLX) fourth-quarter earnings jumped 45% percent to nearly $23 million, or 38 cents per share, which surpassed analysts' estimates. Revenue in the period rose 19% to $360 million. The company ended 2008 with 9.4 million subscribers, a gain of 718,000 customers from the end of September. Shares fell $0.29, less than 1% Monday.

Amgen Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AMGN) fourth-quarter profit grew 15% percent to $961 million, or 91 cents per share, mostly due to lower expenses. Revenue was $3.75 billion about the same as last year. Results included $60 million in restructuring costs a year ago. Shares rose $1.22, or 2.3%, but fell in after-hours trading.

Just as we were getting used to write about how bad trading has been, today came around and was positive throughout. The housing data from existing home sales sent the markets up, despite mostly dismal news from the industrials. Bank stocks had yet another up day.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) announced a deal to acquire rival Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) for $68 billion, or $50.19 a share, a 15% premium to Friday's close of $43.74. This cash-and-stock deal is the largest in the drug sector since 2000 and many see it as a precursor to a flourishing M&A season as the credit markets are slowly starting to improve. Pfizer also reported a 90% profit drop for the fourth quarter due to charges. PFE shares declined 3.4% in premarket trading, while WYE shares gained nearly 5%.

Barclays (NYSE: BCS) shares surged in London Monday after the firm reassured investors in a letter to shareholders it didn't need more capital. But France's BNP Paribas said it would take more cash from the government following a 1.4 billion euro ($1.8 billion) loss in the latest quarter. Finally, ING (NYSE: ING), the Dutch financial services firm, also received government aid as it is expected to announce it had a net loss of 3.3 billion euros in the fourth quarter, that it would cut 7,000 jobs, and that its CEO would step down. BCS shares gained over 44% in premarket trading and ING's gained over 19%.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) are two Dow components set to report earnings this morning. CAT said its fourth-quarter profit fell to $661 million, or $1.08 a share, from $975 million, or $1.50 a share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue rose 6% to $12.9 billion. For 2009, Caterpillar gave a a much lower guidance than analysts had expected, $2.50 vs. $4.35 EPS. CAT also said it would slash 20,000 jobs. CAT shares fell over 11% in premarket trading.
Meanwhile, MCD delivered what at first glance seems to be better-than-expected earnings of 87 cents vs. 84 cents. It even plans to invest $2.1 billion of capital to open about 1,000 new McDonald's restaurants.

American Express (NYSE: AXP) is the third Dow component tor report quarterly results after the close of trading today and is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 20 cents a share.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) warned late Thursday of significantly lower fourth-quarter earnings than in the previous quarter. This isn't surprising as there has been a steep drop in energy prices from the record oil prices in the prior quarter. Chevron also said it experienced narrower refining margins, but didn't give any estimates.

Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) may be naming a new CEO as soon as next week, according to The Wall Street Journal. Ex-Autodesk CEO Carol Bartz is the leading candidate. YHOO shares traded 3.7% higher in premarket action.

KB Home (NYSE: KBH) reported total revenues for the fourth quarter ended November 30, 2008 were $919.0 million, down from $2.07 billion for the year-earlier quarter, and a net loss of $307.3 million, or $3.96 per diluted share. Analysts had expected a fourth-quarter loss -- excluding any charges -- of $1.23 a share. KBH shares were nearly 3% higher in premarket trade.

The elections are upon us with less than 24 hours before the polls open. Our current president George W. Bush has sat by as the economy went from good to bad to worse and his reputation and political standing went with it.

I have voted Republican and I have voted Democrat. I vote for the person, not the party. As the nation ponders who will be sitting in the Oval Office in 2009 I am quite confident that I am not alone. From day one I have felt that Dubya was in the White House because of dear old dad, the senior being far more qualified than junior. Junior became the front man for ideologues more intent on forcing their will upon others after a very dubious election result than all else.

From what I have seen and read, GWB has never been a great success at anything but politics, and now that reputation is toast too. While history has been kind to some past presidents allowing at least partial redemption -- Truman as direct, honest and a strong leader, Nixon on foreign policy issues, and most recently Carter as a humanitarian -- our current president has little to show for his eight years.

U.S. stock futures were somewhat higher Monday morning as investors put October -- one of the worst months ever -- behind them and braced for the impact of the presidential election. A slew of economic data will be released this week, including September construction spending and the October release of the ISM index due today after the market opens. Global stocks were generally higher even as oil slipped again.

PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) said Monday it will invest $1 billion in China over the next four years. The beverage company wants to expand local manufacturing capability, research and development and sales force.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) -- the company has been in the process of trying to find a way to merge with Chrysler. While we didn't hear much about the merger so far from the United Auto Workers union, it seems
it intends to play a key part in it and has has retained an adviser to help with workers' concerns should the merger occur, the WSJ reported.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) saw its 27,000 machinists resuming work Sunday after a 57-day strike that shut down production. Because of logistics, it will take several weeks before Boeing is running normally. The company missed at least 70 deliveries as a result of the strike. Seems it may miss more until production is properly under way. Boeing was downgraded to Conviction Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs, saying investors should sell into the strength from the resolution of the machinists union strike.

We know that some of that money went to pay for plush resort vacations in California. But that is only the small amounts. The Administration just figured -- "Heh, it's not our money going out the door -- who cares what happens to it?"

It was the same thing with $44.5 billion worth of government contracts for Iraq -- give friends the billions and let them do with it what they want. This attitude led to the firing of an Army official who refused to authorize $1 billion in questionable charges to KBR, the unit of Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) that Dick Cheney formerly ran.

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) is not required to report how it's spending our money, but hints have surfaced about where some of it went: $18 billion to cover losses on AIG's securities lending -- where it lent out securities which then declined in value, and $13 billion to pay guarantees on Guaranteed Investment Contracts (GICs). I know I had nothing to do with these bad business bets so why am I paying for them?

This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. See all 26.

Remember Dick Cheney? He hasn't emerged from his spider hole since shooting his buddy in the face at a quail hunt. But last time I was in Washington, I was walking along the street near George Washington University Hospital and suddenly all the cars disappeared and an armada of police cars and black suburbans whizzed by. I was later told that it was Cheney getting his stent checked up.

Prior to his stint in the administration of the 43rd president, It turns out that Cheney's heart beat for Halliburton (NYSE: HAL). In 2004, for example, taxpayers provided Halliburton's KBR subsidiary with $7 billion to provide services in Iraq while it took hundreds of millions of dollars in improper charges. With its 2% profit over costs, the more taxpayer money Halliburton spent, the higher its profits. Fortunately, Halliburton spun off that pesky KBR subsidiary in April 2007.

But it has other problems. The SEC is investigating Halliburton for paying bribes in Nigeria; its KBR subsidiary did a lousy job replacing bolts on an undersea pipeline that will cost Halliburton up to $220 million; the SEC investigated Halliburton for bogus contract revenue accounting; it settled asbestos litigation; a competitor of Hallburton accuses it of antitrust violations; and it received a $108 million judgment for dumping hazardous waste.

U.S. stock futures jumped higher Monday morning as investors gain more confidence in the different government actions taken to stabilize financial markets. Global shares advanced overnight following measures taken worldwide. Indeed, the three-month U.S. dollar LIBOR, a measure of the rate at which banks lend to each other, dropped to 4.06% from 4.42%.

Also, investors will be keeping an eye on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony before the House Budget Committee on the economic outlook and financial markets at 10:00 am EST, same time as the release of the September leading indicators.

As OPEC prepares for a production cut and oil rose to above $74 per barrel, earnings season on Wall Street continues in full swing this week:

• Ericsson AB (NASDAQ: ERIC) shares are rising over 18% in pre-market trading after it posted a better-than-expected third-quarter profit due to cost cut measures and a sales surge.
• Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) reported third-quarter results this morning. Mattel's income rose, but not enough and it missed expectations.
• Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) reported a 14% drop in third-quarter profit, but it beat expectations.
• Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) swung to a loss in the third quarter, but managed to beat earnings expectations by a penny excluding charges. Revenue in the quarter rose 24%.
• SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) report third-quarter results after the closing bell.

All my career, the sentiment indicators have worked. When you get anything near minus 10 on the oscillator, you have to be silly not to buy. When you get anything approximating 35% bulls on the Investors Intelligence survey, you have to buy.

We have almost double that negative on the oscillator and half as many bulls as that pathetic number.

Sentiment has become meaningless. It is incredible.

If we are going into a severe recession, some of the selling makes sense, but not all of it. As we pull back to 8500 on the Dow, we will be looking at stocks that are yielding 6% to 7% that are solid and can't be shaken. We will be finding stocks at prices that we will look back and think it was impossible to believe.

And then there will be another cohort where we will buy and then watch them go down again, because business is so soft.

I want to reiterate that the stock market for now is just plain broken. You can't have Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) down 15% like it is nothing. The company should be losing money with that kind of decline. Remember when I said on Monday that you can't have ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) ) go up 10 because it can go down 10 just as easily?

Well, here we go.

If John McCain wants my vote he must dump Sarah Palin and fast. Judging by the latest polls showing Barack Obama moving ahead and gaining traction, I'm not the only one that feels this way. The outcome of the election is key to investors worried about a range of issues including the $700 billion federal bailout of Wall Street.

Obama may lack the experience I would hope to see in a presidential candidate but to quote a friend and fellow McCain supporter "Sarah Palin is an idiot and the only way she should be allowed in the White House is if she buys a tour ticket." This is not a unique sentiment given the Sarah Palin must go stance taken by conservative columnist Kathleen Parker of the Los Angeles Times. She says her cringe reflex is being exhausted.

I do not like Obama's proposals on capital gains taxes, a windfall oil profits tax, new government programs and several other issues, but the idea of Palin being second-in-command is a joke. And speaking of jokes, if I have misjudged, and McCain and Palin win the election, then Oprah will be surpassed as the wealthiest female in the entertainment industry. The new titan will be 30 Rock and former Saturday Night Live star Tina Fey who will be racking up fat paychecks based on the never ending material supplied by Palin.

Goldman Sachs shook up its ratings on the oil-services sector today, and made a notable adjustment to its "conviction buy" list -- Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) was ousted from the roster in favor of Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG). The brokerage firm still maintains a "buy" rating on HAL, but it's pretty obvious that the stock is now playing Jan Brady to RIG's Marcia.

So, why does Goldman prefer RIG to HAL? The former is more strongly levered to oil than the latter -- and, going forward, the analysts expect strong fundamentals and heightened oil prices to support "oilier" stocks. In a note to clients, Goldman said, "... we continue to expect a healthy oil-services spending environment through 2010, supported by low reinvestment rates and secular trends to more complex, high-margin drilling services."

Despite the bullish "buy" ratings on both securities, Goldman tempered its optimism by trimming its price targets on the duo. HAL's forecast was slashed from $63 to $58, while RIG's was trimmed from $189 to $178. The new price targets represent a 44.5% premium from HAL's closing price yesterday, and a 47% increase from RIG's Thursday settlement.

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